有色商品日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Macro - factors such as progress in Sino - US negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, domestic demand was weak, and there was a divergence between bulls and bears. Although there was a high probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, the market was concerned about whether it would be a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices could still rise [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Short - term alumina maintenance capacity returned, and raw material inventory decreased. Due to reduced ore shipments during the rainy season, ore prices rose, and the decline space of alumina was limited. Aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking during the week, and with the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices were supported. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. LME nickel inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable, and the price of low - grade laterite nickel ore decreased slightly. Stainless steel weekly inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was relatively tight. Under the influence of macro - sentiment and supply disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices rose rapidly and faced correction pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro - factors were positive, but domestic demand was weak. LME inventory decreased by 1325 tons to 152625 tons, Comex inventory increased by 592 tons to 281669 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons. Downstream procurement was weak, but scrap copper substitution was beneficial. The market sentiment shifted, and copper prices turned from weak to strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Fed rate cut impact, volatility was expected to increase around the time of the rate - cut decision [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina (AO2601) closed at 3009 yuan/ton with a 2.84% increase, and its position increased by 7317 lots to 284,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum (AL2510) closed at 21060 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and its position decreased by 4743 lots to 178,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20535 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and its position decreased by 7 lots to 8528 lots. SMM alumina prices fell to 3065 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened [1]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: LME nickel rose 0.29% to 15425 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 122310 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 224484 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons to 24959 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly, and MHP supply was tight. Nickel prices faced correction pressure after a rapid rise [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper rose by 175 yuan/ton to 80910 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 100 yuan/ton to 74200 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1325 tons, and domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.7 million tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 180 yuan/ton to 17040 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 3950 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 68 tons [4]. - Aluminum: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20930 yuan/ton, and the South China price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventory (LME + SHFE) increased by 4421 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton to 124150 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price rose by 0.1% to 22305 yuan/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price rose by 0.4% to 273890 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts increased by 76 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than ten years of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles, and been interviewed by multiple media [50]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain [50]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks the new energy industry chain [51].