国投期货农产品日报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Egg (Far - month Contracts) [1][9] - Bearish: None - Neutral (Wait - and - See): Soybean, Corn, Pork, Egg (Near - month Contracts) [1][2][7][8][9] - Rebound Potential: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors affecting different agricultural products, including weather, trade relations, supply - demand dynamics, and policies. Short - term trends are often influenced by new product listings, policy guidance, and short - term weather changes, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals and industrial policies [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for new soybeans to enter the market. Market expects a good harvest. Imported soybeans' supply is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. Short - term focus is on new soybeans' policy and market performance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 14, US soybean's good - excellent rate was 63%, harvest rate was 5%, both in line with expectations, and the good - excellent rate continued to decline slightly. Future two - week weather in major US soybean - producing areas has less rain and higher temperature. Sino - US agricultural trade has not resumed. Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising, and soybean imports from July to November are over 10 million tons per month, with sufficient supply in Q4. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil continued to rebound. Domestically, traditional manufacturing upgrading makes industrial products strong; overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. In Malaysia, excessive rainfall in Sarawak may affect production, but export demand is weak, leading to high inventory. Overseas palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in Q4, and domestic demand is strong in Q4. Long - term biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support prices, so consider buying on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil is strong while rapeseed meal is weak. As of September 12, coastal rapeseed inventory dropped to 74,000 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory also declined. Canadian statistics will release production data. Rapeseed futures prices are expected to oscillate with a slow upward trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline slightly after a week of decline. Spot prices are differentiated before the new corn harvest. US corn's good - excellent rate was 67% as of September 14, higher than expected, and harvest rate was 7%, lower than expected. Corn may oscillate before and after the new grain starts trading, and may be weak at the bottom after the new grain purchase enthusiasm fades [7] Pork - Pork spot prices hit a new low this year, and the futures market is weak. Supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. Monitor the meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on pork production capacity regulation and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Egg - Egg futures increased in positions and declined, with far - month contracts being stronger. Spot prices are rising in the seasonal rebound window. The industry needs to further reduce production capacity. Newly - hatched chickens' pressure may decrease by the end of the year, and the production capacity is expected to reach its peak in Q4. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for H1 next year and focus on short - position funds' exit in near - month contracts [9]