国投期货软商品日报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, similar to pulp, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, representing a clear long - term trend and good investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★, also indicating a distinct long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose slightly today, while cotton spot sales were poor and mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a rush for purchasing by ginning mills, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginning mills. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, details of Sino - US trade negotiations should be watched. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices will likely remain volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices were weak. In the short term, Brazilian sugar production decreased year - on - year, reducing supply pressure. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, although down significantly, remains at the upper end of the historical range, suggesting a potentially high sugar - making ratio in Brazil next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. This year's sugar sales were fast, with lower inventory and less spot pressure. The market's focus has shifted to imports and the next season's production estimate. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the 25/26 season's production is uncertain due to potential weather impacts [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and spot market expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October were high. However, the estimated apple production in the 25/26 quarter will change little year - on - year, lacking bullish drivers on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more optimistic, and the expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Short - term futures prices are expected to decline, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR prices fluctuated sharply. The futures market sentiment was positive. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber price increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production season, with excessive rainfall in most Southeast Asian regions. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week, with a slight decrease in all - steel tire inventory and a slight increase in semi - steel tire inventory. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, while the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose to 134,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped to 256,000 tons. Overall, demand has recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. Cost support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate decision [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was adjusted upward, while the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline. The inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. Macroeconomically, the CCPI in August was - 0.4% year - on - year and flat month - on - month, indicating weak inflation this year. The PPI showed marginal improvement, but the over - capacity in the mid - and downstream sectors hindered the price transmission. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price remained stable. Last week, the timber arrival volume decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price in September dropped by $2. The domestic spot price is weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The high foreign price also makes it difficult for the domestic price to improve, increasing traders' pressure, and imports are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is entering the peak season, but the export volume has not increased significantly. During the off - season, the daily出库 volume exceeded 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth. The total log inventory is low, with less inventory pressure. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand has not yet started, and short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [7]