国债期货日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It indicates that due to the publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article, the bond market was concerned about the "anti - involution" market, but the impact is still at the trading sentiment level and has not significantly changed the market's view of the fundamentals. The trading strategy is to enter long positions on dips, take profits when prices rise, and avoid chasing the market. It also reminds to watch the press conference on expanding service consumption which may affect the market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1. Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher. T and TF had relatively large gains, and TL recovered its opening losses. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open - market, with a net injection of 40 billion yuan. The money market remained tight, and DR001 rose to 1.44% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The "Qiushi" magazine published General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market". China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue through cooperation, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [2]. 3.3. Market Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 16 Price | 2025 - 09 - 15 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 16 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 15 Position (Lots) | Position Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.368 | 0.042 | 77,964 | 72,691 | 5,273 | | TF2512 | 105.78 | 105.66 | 0.12 | 144,812 | 135,920 | 8,892 | | T2512 | 108.01 | 107.84 | 0.17 | 240,621 | 236,190 | 4,431 | | TL2512 | 115.52 | 115.48 | 0.04 | 168,706 | 162,580 | 6,126 | | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 16 Basis | 2025 - 09 - 15 Basis | Basis Change | 2025 - 09 - 16 Trading Volume (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 15 Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS (CTD) | - 0.0241 | - 0.0291 | 0.005 | 43,740 | 24,122 | 19,618 | | TF (CTD) | 0.0072 | 0.0708 | - 0.0636 | 89,826 | 54,025 | 35,801 | | T (CTD) | 0.3299 | 0.4266 | - 0.0967 | 138,741 | 94,600 | 44,141 | | TL (CTD) | 0.3712 | 0.554 | - 0.1828 | 177,470 | 111,024 | 66,446 | [4]