Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 12:30Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The alumina market is in a relatively stable supply - demand stage. The Guinea rainy season affects bauxite shipping, but domestic alumina production remains stable. With stable electrolytic aluminum capacity and increased inquiries from aluminum plants, the spot market transactions are improving. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. Stable alumina supply, falling alumina prices, and expected interest rate cuts support aluminum prices. The production profit of smelters is good, and downstream orders are improving. It is suggested to trade in a range - bound manner with a light position [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of slightly reduced supply and warming demand. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices, but high inventory restricts downstream purchases. It is recommended to trade in a range - bound manner with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,975 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 2,979 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. The spreads of some contracts have changed, e.g., the main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is 5 yuan, up 105 yuan [2]. - Positions and Inventories: The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have decreased. The inventory of alumina has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory remains unchanged. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the SHFE has increased [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum and some other spot products remain stable, while the alumina spot price has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy has weakened, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum has strengthened. The basis of alumina has also weakened [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: Alumina production has decreased to 756.49 million tons, but the capacity utilization rate has increased to 84.75%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part has increased [2]. - Trade: The import and export of aluminum waste and alumina have changed, with an increase in the import of aluminum waste and an increase in the export of alumina [2]. Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The production of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum products, and some alloys has changed. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, while the production of aluminum products has decreased [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased [2]. Downstream and Application - Production: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots has increased, while the production of aluminum alloy and some other products has decreased [2]. - Sales and Consumption: The export of some aluminum products has decreased, and the real - estate climate index has declined. However, automobile production has increased [2]. Option Situation - Volatility: The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum has decreased, and the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money option has also decreased [2]. - Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.19, down 0.0514, indicating a bullish sentiment in the option market [2]. Industry News - Policy: Xi Jinping's important article emphasizes the construction of a unified national market and addresses various market disorders [2]. - Economic Data: Industrial added - value, investment, consumption, and real - estate data have been released, showing different trends [2]. - Market Outlook: Wall Street strategists warn of a potential slowdown in the US stock market after the Fed's interest rate cut [2].