Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Coking coal rose nearly 6%, coke rose over 4%, glass and soda ash rose over 3%, and alumina and rapeseed oil rose nearly 2%. On the downside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell over 1%, and red dates and eggs fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.24%, IH fell 0.36%, IC rose 0.58%, and IM rose 1.02%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.13%, T rose 0.15%, and TL remained flat [5]. - As of 15:17 on September 16, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601 saw an inflow of 1.163 billion yuan, rapeseed oil 2601 had an inflow of 1.008 billion yuan, and thirty - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 462 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2509 (2.448 billion yuan), SSE 50 2509 (1.23 billion yuan), and Shanghai copper 2510 (1.146 billion yuan) [7]. 2. Core Views - Copper: The market is trading on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude, and the US dollar index is weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decline significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and smelter maintenance, supporting copper prices. The demand side is in the expectation of the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 70,600 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. Supply is affected by the proportion of lithium mica raw materials and mine复产. Demand is boosted by the new energy vehicle policy and the peak season. In the short term, prices are strong, but the upside may be limited by mine复产 [10][11]. - Crude Oil: The seasonal travel peak is ending. US oil inventories are increasing, and OPEC + is accelerating production increases. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short term, the market may focus on sanctions against Russian oil, and geopolitical risks are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Asphalt: Supply is increasing with rising production and开工 rates. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and other factors. With limited cost support, it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [14]. - PP: Downstream开工 rates are rising, and new production capacity has been put into operation. With cost support and the approaching peak season, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [15][16]. - Plastic:开工 rates are at a neutral level, and downstream demand is increasing with the peak season for agricultural films. With cost support and the influence of policies, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [17]. - PVC: Supply is increasing with rising开工 rates and new production capacity. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The upside space is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand [18][19]. - Coking Coal: Spot prices are stable or rising. Production and imports are increasing, but inventories are decreasing. Demand is rising with steel mill复产. Prices are rising, but there may be short - term corrections [20]. - Urea: Prices are oscillating. Production is recovering, and demand is improving marginally. However, high inventory restricts price increases. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [21][22].
冠通每日交易策略-20250916
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-16 13:19