Western Securities·2025-09-16 13:43Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Huaxin Cement, with a target price of 21.41 CNY per share based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][19]. Core Views - The company's dual strategy of "internationalization" and "cement integration" is expected to drive cyclical growth and open up long-term growth potential. Revenue is projected to reach 35.5 billion CNY in 2025, with net profit expected to be 2.8 billion CNY [1][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huaxin Cement is a century-old cement manufacturer and a leader in overseas expansion, ranking sixth in domestic clinker capacity and third in overseas clinker capacity as of 2024. The company has a strong presence in Africa and aims for a mid-term overseas capacity target of 50 million tons [2][26]. Overseas Business - The company leads in the number of overseas layout points in China, with significant growth potential in Africa due to low urbanization rates and per capita cement consumption. The overseas revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 37.3% [2][12]. Domestic Business - As a leader in the central China cement market, Huaxin Cement benefits from strong demand in regions like Hubei and Tibet. The company is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms that will eliminate outdated capacity, with a significant increase in aggregate production and profitability [3][12]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.5 billion CNY, 38 billion CNY, and 40.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.8 billion CNY, 3.2 billion CNY, and 3.6 billion CNY respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve from 27% to 28% over the same period [1][15]. Key Assumptions - The report outlines key assumptions for revenue growth in cement, concrete, and aggregate businesses, with expected declines in cement sales gradually narrowing from 5% in 2025 to 3% in 2027. The overseas cement sales are expected to grow at rates of 25%, 20%, and 15% from 2025 to 2027 [12][13][14]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the fragmented competitive landscape in the African cement market, where Huaxin Cement's shareholder, Holcim Group, holds a significant market share. The company is well-positioned to expand its market share in Africa through strategic acquisitions [2][19].