AVIC Forstar S&T (BJ:835640) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-09-16 13:52Investment Insights - The overall economic growth rate in Q3 2025 is expected to slow down, with a rising possibility of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year [2][11] - August retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with notable growth in furniture and home appliances [12][13] - The fixed asset investment has weakened for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% from January to August 2025 [8][9] - The import and export growth rates have shown a temporary decline, with total trade value increasing by 3.5% year-on-year in the first eight months [9][10] Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to perform well in the second half of the year, with a projected yield for 10-year government bonds between 1.6% and 1.8% [11] - The current yield for 10-year government bonds is around 1.8%, presenting a favorable cost-benefit ratio [11] New Consumption Sector - The retail sales of essential goods have shown steady growth, while discretionary spending in categories like jewelry and communication devices has increased significantly [12][13] - Online retail sales have accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [7][12] Company Analysis: Fujida (835640.BJ) - In H1 2025, Fujida reported a revenue of 408 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 37.18 million yuan, up 11% year-on-year [22][23] - The company has seen a significant recovery in defense orders and is actively expanding into medical and low-altitude applications [22][24] - The sales of RF coaxial connectors have steadily increased, supported by a recovery in defense orders [23][24] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging industries and has made breakthroughs in medical and maritime sectors [24][25]