2025年1-8月统计局房地产数据点评：止跌回稳压力加大，政策阈值逐步临近

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in real estate development and sales indicators has intensified, with core cities facing significant pressure on second-hand housing prices. A new round of policy easing is gradually being initiated from the bottom up, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen relaxing purchase restrictions since August. There is still room for conventional policies, and extraordinary measures have considerable flexibility [2][11]. - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with relatively low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also indicates that there is potential for investment in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage sectors, particularly for leading companies with stable cash flow and potential high dividends [2][11]. Summary by Sections Sales and Price Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, national commodity housing sales value and area decreased by 7.3% and 4.7% year-on-year, respectively. In August alone, sales value and area fell by 14.0% and 10.6% year-on-year, with sales value performing slightly better than the average from 2020 to 2024. The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities dropped by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month in August, respectively [11][12]. - As of August, second-hand housing price indices in all cities except Chengdu have fallen below levels from September of the previous year, indicating increased pressure to stabilize prices [11]. Construction and Investment Trends - New construction area in the first eight months of 2025 decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a 20.6% decline in August. The report anticipates that the rate of decline in new construction may narrow but expects limited elasticity due to unclear sales expectations and high inventory clearance cycles [11]. - The report notes that funding for real estate companies has continued to show weak performance, with total funding down 8.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025. Real estate development investment also fell by 12.9% year-on-year during the same period [11][12]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the most challenging period for the real estate industry may be nearing its end, with expectations of continued double-digit declines in construction and investment throughout 2025. The performance of sales will largely depend on the effectiveness of future policy measures [11][12].