美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题：中国牛肉2025年产量环比调减，全球大豆库存进一步收紧-20250916

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on the cyclical recovery in beef prices and the potential upward trend in dairy prices [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's September supply and demand report indicates a reduction in the global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.10 percentage points, with China's ratio decreasing by 0.34 percentage points [16] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, supported by a tightening supply-demand balance [18] Soybeans - The USDA report shows a reduction in global soybean ending stocks by 0.13 percentage points, with a focus on U.S. trade policies and weather conditions impacting short-term prices [32] - The long-term outlook for soybeans remains positive, with expectations of strong price support in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with the USDA projecting an increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 1.53 percentage points [45] - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom, supported by sufficient supply [46] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but sugar prices may remain weak due to increased import volumes [2] Cotton - The global cotton supply is expected to remain loose, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio by 1.09 percentage points [4] - Domestic cotton prices are projected to have room for recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve [4] Beef - The USDA forecasts a reduction in U.S. beef production for 2025, with prices expected to maintain an upward trend [3] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in prices starting in 2025 [3] Dairy - The USDA has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. milk production and consumption upwards for 2026, indicating a potential recovery in domestic dairy prices [4] Pork - The USDA predicts a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption for 2026, with domestic breeding stock remaining stable [7] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with domestic demand anticipated to improve [7] Eggs - The supply of eggs is expected to gradually recover in the second half of 2025, although price pressures are anticipated throughout the year [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in undervalued leaders in livestock, poultry, and feed sectors, including specific companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Mu Yuan Shares [8]