农产品研究跟踪系列报告（174）：生猪反内卷有序推进，肉牛价格Q4有望加速上涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3] - The pig farming sector is supported by a stable price floor, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3] - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3] - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to see significant returns due to the recovery of the aquaculture market [3] - The poultry sector is projected to experience a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3] Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is progressing orderly with a stable production capacity, and pig prices are expected to maintain a favorable trend into 2025. As of September 12, the price of live pigs was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 3.35% week-on-week and down 31.86% year-on-year [1] - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 284.29 yuan/head, down 9.95% week-on-week and down 29.43% year-on-year [1] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with attention on seasonal consumption recovery. As of September 12, the price of chicken seedlings was 3.03 yuan/bird, down 8.46% week-on-week [1] - The price of eggs in major production areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 6.98% week-on-week but down 24.10% year-on-year [1] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025. As of September 12, the average price of beef in the domestic market was 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and up 21.29% year-on-year [1][3] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 4, up 0.3% week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Soybean Meal - The short-term supply of soybean meal is ample, while the medium to long-term supply-demand balance is expected to strengthen. As of September 12, the domestic soybean spot price was 4044 yuan/ton, up 0.95% week-on-week [2] Corn - The domestic supply-demand balance is tightening, and prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. As of September 12, the domestic corn spot price was 2357 yuan/ton, up 0.30% week-on-week and up 1.77% year-on-year [2] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on the import rhythm and fluctuations in crude oil prices. As of September 12, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi was 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [2]