金信期货日刊-20250917

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The overall carbon element supply remains abundant, with an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream hot metal. The market sentiment still anticipates coal over - production inspections. For various commodities, there are different trends and investment suggestions, including seizing opportunities in the volatile and upward - trending markets [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 16, 2025, coking coal futures rose for the fourth consecutive day, with a gain of 5.84% and closing at 1,240 yuan. From a fundamental perspective, stricter safety inspections in Shanxi may limit production release, but steel mill profits have limited recovery, hot metal production is at a medium - low level, coke demand is insufficient, and coking plant inventories are high with low procurement willingness. From a news perspective, supply - side disturbances at coal mines may last until around National Day, but downstream procurement of coking coal and coke has slowed, and speculative demand has weakened. The prices of coke and coking coal are still greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility. One should seize the opportunities in the volatile and upward - trending markets [3][4][6]. B. Stock Index Futures - The ChiNext market closed with a small阳线 with a lower shadow. In terms of news, the results of the China - US economic and trade talks in Madrid were announced, reaching a basic framework consensus. Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's grain output has reached a new level, with a per - capita possession of 500 kilograms. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [9]. C. Gold - The US non - farm payroll data for August still fell short of expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to continue rising in the short term [13]. D. Iron Ore - The supply - side shipments are stable. Recently, steel mills have shown signs of gradual resumption of production, and hot metal is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, the start of restocking by steel mills may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range shock range, and a shock - based approach should be adopted [16][17]. E. Glass - Technically, it rebounded strongly today. The daily melting volume is basically stable, factory inventories have slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is still insufficient. One should pay attention to the restocking situation approaching the peak season and continue to view it from a low - buying perspective [20][21]. F. Alumina - As of August, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,852.79 yuan per ton, an increase of about 7.85 yuan per ton from the previous month. With the "anti - involution" trend emerging and market sentiment improving, it should be treated with a volatile and upward - trending view [24]. G. Pulp - Today, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventories started to slightly decline but remained at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there are expected positive factors for pulp, but there has been no improvement yet. A low - level shock view is maintained, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [27].