宝城期货国债期货早报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints for TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that although there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight rebound throughout the day. The newly released credit data was weak, and the marginal consumption growth rate declined, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, and the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [5]. - Currently, bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, the upward space for bond futures is limited [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data from July to August indicates the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [5]. - In general, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].