渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.17）-20250917

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for August 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 5.6% and previous value of 5.7% [4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous value of 3.7% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth was only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3% and previous value of 1.6% [4] Consumption Trends - The growth rate of retail sales in August was weaker than market expectations due to diminishing policy effects and declining consumer willingness [5] - Restaurant income saw a recovery due to summer outings and platform subsidies, but retail sales growth slowed down by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6% [5] - The automotive and jewelry sectors performed relatively well, but overall consumption growth faces challenges due to rising baselines and employment expectations [5] Investment Expectations - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for five consecutive months, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year [6] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 4.4 percentage points to -6.4% due to adverse weather conditions [6] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 2.5 percentage points to -19.5%, with new construction and completion rates also decreasing [6] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond yields have risen across the board, reaching yearly highs, while credit spreads have shown differentiation among short- and medium-term notes [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes showing positive net financing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to yield fluctuations [8] Fund Research - The equity market indices all rose, with the Sci-Tech 50 index increasing by 5.48% [11] - The average return for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income funds showed a slight decline [11] - A total of 55 new funds were issued, raising 217.94 billion, which is a decrease from the previous period [12] Industry Research on Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are seen as a key trend in battery technology, with sulfide electrolytes being the main research focus [14] - The demand for lithium, germanium, zirconium, titanium, and lanthanum is expected to rise significantly due to solid-state battery development [16] - Companies with upstream resource advantages and strong R&D capabilities in solid-state battery materials are recommended for investment [17]