Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, with expectations of a Fed rate cut. Gold is bullish in the medium - term but may experience a short - term pullback after hitting new highs. Silver follows gold, and it is recommended to take profits in the domestic market after it breaks through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - The aluminum market is expected to rise due to enhanced rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand. Alumina is in a supply - demand surplus, and its rebound space is limited. Zinc requires observation. Lead is recommended to be bought at dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade in a range, and polysilicon also presents a 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel supply and demand are seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in steel. Iron ore should be observed. For coking coal, close long positions in the 2605 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term trends of soybean meal are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies. Corn futures are expected to decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. Cotton can be bought at dips. Logs should be observed. Palm oil is bullish in the medium - term. Eggs are expected to strengthen in the short - term. For pork, consider reverse spread strategies [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical sector, LLDPE and PP are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the medium - to long - term. PVC can be shorted after a rebound. Glass and soda ash are expected to improve seasonally. Crude oil should be shorted at highs. Styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the long - term. Caustic soda can be bought [8][9][10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price reaching $3,700 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Milan was confirmed as a Fed governor, and the US retail sales in August increased for three consecutive months. Gold ETF funds in China continued to flow in, and the inventories of gold and silver in various regions showed different changes [1]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish on gold in the medium - term but expect a short - term pullback. Take profits on silver after it breaks through 10,000 yuan in the domestic market [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% to 20,975 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover [2]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish on aluminum due to rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.50% to 2,979 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had high operating capacity, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The rebound of alumina prices is limited due to supply - demand surplus [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply was abundant with some disturbances, and consumption was "not in the peak season". Inventories continued to accumulate [2][3]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [2][3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2510 contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply tightened regionally, and consumption was expected to rise with pre - National Day stocking [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at dips [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 - contract closed at 8,815 yuan per ton, up 1.31% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and both social and warehouse inventories started to accumulate slightly. Demand was at a relatively high level this year [3]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the 8,200 - 9,200 range and observe [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 - contract closed at 53,670 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply was stable, and inventories started to accumulate. Demand from the photovoltaic industry was pessimistic in Q3 [3]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the 52,000 - 57,000 range and consider 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,151 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: Building material inventories increased, and the supply - demand of building materials was neutral to weak, while that of plates was stable [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Take profits on long positions [4][5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan [5]. - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. Iron ore supply and demand were neutral to strong [5]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,233.5 yuan per ton, down 5.5 yuan [5]. - Fundamentals: Iron - making output increased, and the overall inventory of coking coal decreased. Futures were over - valued [5]. - Trading Strategy: Close long positions in the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose on expectations of improved US soybean exports [6]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South American soybeans were expected to increase. Demand was structurally differentiated [6]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term trends are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of corn traded in a narrow range, with spot prices rising in the Northeast and falling in the North [6]. - Fundamentals: Imported grain auctions increased supply, and new - crop corn was expected to increase production with lower costs [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,544 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [6]. - Fundamentals: Brazil's sugar production was high, and the growth of sugarcane in different regions in China showed different situations [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures rose, and Zhengzhou cotton futures trended upwards [7]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton boll - opening rate was behind last year, and the domestic retail sales of clothing increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at dips in the 13,800 - 14,500 range [7]. Logs - Market Performance: The 09 contract of logs closed at 806.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 0.25% [7]. - Fundamentals: Port inventories decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [7]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [7]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in a seasonal increase period, and exports increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: Bullish in the medium - term, with the core driver being seasonal production cuts [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of eggs corrected, and some spot prices rose [7]. - Fundamentals: Demand increased seasonally, but supply was abundant [7]. - Trading Strategy: Expected to strengthen in the short - term [7]. Pork - Market Performance: The 2511 contract of pork corrected, and spot prices fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Consumption increased, but supply was also abundant. Policy support was expected to reduce future supply pressure [7]. - Trading Strategy: Consider reverse spread strategies [7]. Energy and Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - Fundamentals: Domestic supply increased, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand improved seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V01 contract of PVC rose 1% [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were in a weak balance, and inventories reached a new high [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short after a rebound [8]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract of glass rose 3.5% [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was large, and inventories decreased seasonally. Downstream demand improved slightly [8]. - Trading Strategy: Go long [8]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose for three consecutive days due to supply concerns [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weakening [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short at highs [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract of styrene rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels, and downstream demand improved seasonally [9]. - Trading Strategy: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the long - term [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA01 contract of soda ash rose 3.1% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was increasing, and demand from the photovoltaic and glass industries improved seasonally [9]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [9]. Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The SH01 contract of caustic soda rose 0.5% [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved seasonally [10]. - Trading Strategy: Go long [10].
商品期货早班车-20250917
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-17 01:31