沪铜日评：铜价或有调整，关注美联储9月议息会议点阵图-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to uncertainties in the Fed's future rate - cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season but the high copper price suppressing potential demand, the Shanghai copper price may experience adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Overview - Shanghai Copper Futures: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677 hands; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040 hands; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 from the previous day [2]. - London Copper: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 16, 2025, was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 from the previous day [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 16, 2025, was 4.6991, up 0.05 from the previous day. The total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - Supply: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, causing the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates to decline. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in September increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the DRC reduced production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the DRC [2]. - Demand: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season has led to a recovery in demand in some copper - processing industries. However, high copper prices have made downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2]. - Inventory: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2].