冠通期货资讯早间报-20250917

Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3727.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. Factors such as a weaker dollar, rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand support precious metal prices, but some contracts declined due to policy uncertainty [3]. - International oil prices rose strongly. The U.S. crude oil main contract rose 1.97% to $64.55 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.59% to $68.51 per barrel. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have raised supply concerns, and a larger - than - expected decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories further supported oil prices [3]. - Most London base metals closed higher. LME nickel rose 0.06% to $15445 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.43% to $2712 per ton, and LME tin rose 0.32% to $34750 per ton. LME copper fell 0.68% to $10117 per ton. LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high [3]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while iron ore, hot - rolled coils, rebar, and soybeans No. 2 declined slightly [4]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - A U.S. appeals court rejected President Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily remain at the Fed during the upcoming FOMC meetings [7]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information on whether Chinese and U.S. leaders will talk this week [7]. - Nine Chinese government departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including measures to improve service quality and benefit the public [7]. - The U.S. Commerce Department will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Since September, most deep - processing orders in major regions in China have not improved significantly, with most orders being scattered. Some medium - and large - sized enterprises can still arrange production for 20 - 60 days for engineering projects [10]. - OPEC+ representatives will meet in Vienna to discuss updating member production capacity estimates [12]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key Russian export ports and refineries [12]. Metal Futures - Chile expects copper production to increase this year despite setbacks at two major copper mines, and production is expected to reach a record high by 2027 [13]. - Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum and Electricity Co., Ltd. plans to replace its existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity [13]. - LME nickel inventories reached a four - year high on September 16, with significant increases in recent periods [13]. - Glencore will meet with the South African government to discuss avoiding layoffs at a smelter [14]. - Spot gold reached a new high, supported by dollar weakness and expectations of a Fed rate cut [15]. Black - Series Futures - From September 8 - 14, 2025, iron ore inventories at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports increased slightly, while Chinese 47 - port imported iron ore inventories decreased [18]. - Jinyie Steel Group resumed production after maintenance, increasing daily hot - metal output [19]. - Tangshan's coke and steel enterprises started environmental - protection - related production restrictions on September 16 [19]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Hongtong stopped production on September 16, affecting about 140,000 tons of coal output [19]. - Thirteen coal - washing enterprises in Wuhai are required to complete rectifications by the end of the month [19]. - As of September 16, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 major electric - arc - furnace steel mills in China decreased [20]. Agricultural Futures - China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons this week, with slow inventory accumulation of soybean meal [23]. - China's use of agricultural fertilizers and pesticides decreased in 2024 compared to 2020 [23]. - As of September 15, cotton inventories in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year [23]. - Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply - demand imbalances [24]. - China's domestic oil - mill average operating rate increased in the 37th week [24]. - China will conduct a central reserve frozen pork auction on September 18 [25]. - As of September 16, China's soybean oil port inventories increased slightly [26]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production and 2025 export volume forecasts remain unchanged, while the 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised [28]. - As of September 14, EU 2025/26 soybean and corn imports decreased compared to last year [29]. - The U.S. EPA proposed re - allocating biofuel blending obligations [29]. - Brazil's September soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volume forecasts are raised [29]. Financial Market Financial - China's A - share market closed higher, with robot concept stocks leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68% [31]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.56%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off, but Alibaba had a net buy - in [31]. - Chery Automobile will start its IPO book - building today, targeting a valuation of HK$140 billion [33]. - Benyuan Quantum filed for IPO guidance [33]. - Micro - Nano Star, a satellite manufacturing unicorn, started its IPO process [34]. Industry - A UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area started construction, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan and over 150 billion yuan for the supporting power base [34]. - Guangdong Province issued an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, aiming for a scale - above - designated - size toy industry revenue of 100 billion yuan and an AI toy penetration rate of over 30% by 2027 [34]. - Suzhou released an "AI +" city action plan, aiming to gather over 3000 AI enterprises and achieve an average annual growth of over 20% in the intelligent economy core scale by the end of 2026 [35]. - China Real Estate Association's direct - sales platform for commercial housing was launched [36]. - The world's first AI Agent trading market, MuleRun, was launched [37]. Overseas - The U.S. Senate approved Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and Trump signed the appointment [39]. - A U.S. appeals court allowed Fed Governor Cook to stay, and the Trump administration will appeal [39]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year [39]. - The U.S. will consider expanding tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts [39]. - The U.S. government is discussing setting up a $5 - billion mining investment fund and expanding strategic uranium reserves [39]. - A U.S. House Republican temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown lacks Democratic - demanded healthcare policies [40]. - U.S. retail sales rose in August, which may affect the Fed's rate - cut decision [42]. - U.S. manufacturing output rose in August, better than expected [43]. - Canada's CPI and new - home starts data in August were lower than expected, and the market is pricing in a Bank of Canada rate cut [43]. International Stock Markets - U.S. major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.27%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq down 0.07%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose [44]. - European major stock indices closed lower due to multiple factors, including Fed policy uncertainty and France's credit - rating issues [44]. - The U.S. SEC is considering Trump's proposal to reduce the frequency of corporate earnings reports [44]. - Japanese and South Korean stock markets continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI reaching new highs [45]. Commodity - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold rising and COMEX silver falling [47]. - International oil prices rose strongly due to supply concerns and inventory data [47]. - Most London base metals closed higher, with LME nickel inventories reaching a four - year high [47]. - OPEC+ will discuss production capacity at this week's meeting [48]. Bond - Yields of major Chinese inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [49]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [52]. - The U.S. dollar index fell, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Key economic data to be released include New Zealand's Q2 current account, Japan's August trade balance, UK's August CPI, etc. [54] Events - There are multiple central - bank meetings, including the Fed, Bank of Canada, and Indonesia's central bank. There are also various press conferences and industry events [56]