Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on September 17, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, and corn [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by U.S. soybean oil and macro - level factors [2]. - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans continued to rise, and the outcome of China - U.S. negotiations should be monitored [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to optimistic trade sentiment, it is in a low - level oscillation [2]. - Soybean No.1: In oscillation [2]. - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Sugar: With a weak basis [2]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2]. - Pigs: Policy expectations have materialized, but the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session was 9,524 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session was 8,452 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,400 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,750 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [5]. - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 82 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,064 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News - Kenanga Research predicted that edible oil prices, including palm oil, would remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [6]. - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in September to reach 753 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 219 million tons [7]. - Abiove maintained Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons, and adjusted some production and export forecasts for soybean products [7]. - Trend Intensity - Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,924 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease; DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,041 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [12]. - Spot: In Shandong, soybean meal prices were between 3,020 - 3,040 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments compared to the previous day [12]. - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.38 million tons per day, and the inventory was 110.85 million tons per week [12]. - Macro and Industry News - On September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to optimistic sentiment about China - U.S. trade negotiations and uncertainty about U.S. soybean production [12]. - Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,166 yuan/ton with a 0.55% decrease, and the night - session was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [16]. - Spot: The price at Jinzhou's平仓 was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [16]. - Spread: The basis of the main 11 - contract was 134 yuan/ton [16]. - Macro and Industry News - Northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Trend Intensity - The corn trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main futures price was 5,547 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - Basis and Spread: The mainstream spot basis was 393 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase; the 15 - spread was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation increased again; Brazil's sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 25/26 sugar production [19]. - In the domestic market, production, consumption, and import forecasts for different seasons were provided, and there were expectations of a decrease in sucrose yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [20]. - In the international market, ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons [21]. - Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,895 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and the night - session was 13,940 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase [23]. - Spot: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,162 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [23]. - Spread: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. - Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, waiting for new cotton to be listed; the cotton textile market was lackluster, with slow - moving prices [24]. - ICE cotton futures rose by over 1%, following the overall strength of the commodity market, and the market was watching the Fed's interest - rate decision [24]. - Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,090 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.99% decrease; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase [29]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.60 yuan/jin, up from the previous day [29]. - Spread: The Egg 10 - 1 spread was - 288 yuan, down from the previous day [29]. - Trend Intensity - The egg trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Pigs - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Pig 2511's price was 13,275 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; Pig 2601's price was 13,745 yuan/ton with a 55 - yuan increase [32]. - Spot: The price of pigs in Henan was 13,230 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [32]. - Spread: The Pig 2511 basis was - 45 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan decrease; the Pig 11 - 1 spread was - 470 yuan/ton with a 35 - yuan decrease [32]. - Market Logic - The supply in September was large, and the market pressure was increasing. The spot price was expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of the central price in March and May. The short - term LH2511 contract had a support level of 12,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 13,500 yuan/ton [34]. - Trend Intensity - The pig trend intensity was - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [33]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK510's closing price was 7,816 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; PK511's closing price was 7,796 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase [36]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 160 - yuan decrease [36]. - Spread: The basis of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 384 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton [36]. - Spot Market Focus - In different regions, new peanuts were gradually being listed, with small trading volumes and generally stable prices [37]. - Trend Intensity - The peanut trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [38].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250917
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-17 01:37