国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250917

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Coke: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][16] - Coking coal: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][17] - Logs: Expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][19] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market are affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news, showing different trends of wide - range fluctuations, strong oscillations, or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The I2601 contract had a position of 532,373 lots, a decrease of 3,458 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [4] - News: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [4] - Trend Strength: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The previous day's closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,069 yuan/ton and 3,433 yuan/ton, up 1.05% and 1.18% respectively. Trading volumes, positions, and position changes were given. Spot prices in various regions increased to different extents. Basis and spreads also changed [8] - News: From January to August 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6%. In August, China's crude steel production was 7737000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. Other production, inventory, and trade data were also provided [9][11] - Trend Strength: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts were given. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the prices of related raw materials also changed. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed different trends [13] - News: On September 16th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon. South Korea's manganese ore imports in August decreased significantly [13][14] - Trend Strength: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions changed. Basis and spreads also showed certain changes [17] - News: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16th [17] - Trend Strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends of increase, decrease, or stability. Spot prices of different types of logs in various regions were mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases [20] - News: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22] - Trend Strength: 0 [22]