生猪：政策预期落地，现货弱势难改

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - Futures Prices: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]