Western Securities·2025-09-17 01:55Group 1: Company Overview - The report covers Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), highlighting its dual strategy of "internationalization" and "cement integration" to drive cyclical growth and long-term expansion potential. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 35.5 billion, 38 billion, and 40.4 billion yuan, with net profit estimates of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.6 billion yuan respectively [1][4][5] - The company is a leading cement manufacturer with significant domestic and overseas production capacity, ranking sixth in domestic clinker capacity and third in overseas clinker capacity as of 2024 [5] Group 2: International Business Strategy - Huaxin Cement has the largest number of overseas layout points in China, with a mid-term target of 50 million tons of overseas production capacity. The company is well-positioned to benefit from rapid economic growth and low cement consumption in many countries, particularly in Africa [5] - The overseas revenue growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 20%, with a gross profit margin of 37.3%, significantly higher than domestic margins [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Position - The company is a leader in the cement market in Central China, with a strong demand outlook in regions like Hubei and Tibet. The supply-side reforms are expected to benefit the company as it adheres to approved production capacities [6] - Huaxin Cement holds the largest aggregate production capacity in the country, with a sales volume increase of 6.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outperforming industry averages [6] Group 4: Real Estate Market Insights - In August 2025, the real estate market showed a decline in sales area and sales amount, with year-on-year decreases of 9.7% and 13.6% respectively. However, the sales amount's decline has narrowed compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [7][8] - The average price of residential properties in August 2025 was 9,971 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, but with signs of recovery in transaction prices [7][8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious optimism in the real estate sector, recommending a focus on structural opportunities as the market stabilizes. Specific companies such as Beike, Tianjian Group, and regional leaders like Binhai Group are highlighted for their potential [9]