生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250917

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to be abundant until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, along with the potential for a year - end price upturn, provides some support to the market [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the slaughter weight of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 3,795 lots in positions today, with approximately 84,900 lots held. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,160 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Based on the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before September and October. The bullish logic includes weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather cools down, and limited increase in future slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price may rise at the end of the year. Consider conducting a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 16, the national average live pig slaughter price was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.98% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased. - Among the futures prices, most contracts showed a downward trend, with the 11 - contract closing at 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous day. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 55 yuan/ton or 64.71% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts and the 01 - 03 contracts, which can help investors understand the market trends [14].