五矿期货贵金属日报-20250917

Group 1: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.19% to 839.74 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.41% to 10,043.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.13% to 3,729.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.01% to 42.92 US dollars/ounce [1] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.04%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.65 [1] - For precious metals, prices and trading volume data for various contracts such as Au(T+D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF, Ag(T+D), London Silver, SLV Silver ETF, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3] - Detailed data on gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other aspects of COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., were provided, along with changes and historical quantiles [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The key retail data released yesterday exceeded market expectations, suppressing the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The month-on-month value of US retail sales in August was 0.6%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%. After the data was released, precious metal prices declined in the short term [1] - The most important event currently influencing the Fed's monetary policy is the Fed's interest rate meeting early tomorrow morning. The strong retail data will reduce the probability of an overseas recession in the medium term. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be a "preventive interest rate cut" rather than a "recessionary interest rate cut," which is a more significant positive factor for silver with strong industrial attributes [1] Group 3: Historical Performance and Current Situation - Historically, gold has benefited from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver price increases have been driven by expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy [2] - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting has marked the beginning of a new round of interest rate cut cycles by the Fed. The possibility of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman means a fundamental change in the nature of the Fed's monetary policy, shifting from a decision based on employment and inflation data to a policy tool of the US President. Both in terms of expectations and reality, the current macro - background is favorable for the price increase of precious metals, especially silver [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 816 - 860 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9,710 - 10,800 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 5: Graphical Analysis - Multiple graphs were presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, actual interest rates; the relationship between Shanghai Gold price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai Gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai Silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [7][9][11]