贵金属日评：美联储降息预期支撑金价，关注9月议息会议点阵图-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials have led more Fed officials to support interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Gold Futures: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00. The inventory remained unchanged at 53,226.00 (in ten grams) [1] - Spot Shanghai Gold T+D: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00 [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 3,677.60 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 220,410.00 and an open interest of 385,580.00. The inventory was 39,180,931.12 (in gold ounces) [1] - London Gold Spot: On September 16, 2025, the price was 3,632.65 US dollars/ounce [1] - SPDR Gold ETF Holdings: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 979.95 tons [1] - iShare Gold ETF Holdings: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 464.57 tons [1] - Shanghai Silver Futures: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - Spot Shanghai Silver T+D: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 43.19 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 63,715.00 and an open interest of 134,910.00. The inventory was 518,898,317.13 (in silver ounces) [1] - London Silver Spot: On September 16, 2025, the price was 42.69 US dollars/ounce [1] - US iShare Silver ETF Holdings: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 15,137.37 tons [1] - TPSLV Silver ETF Holdings: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 6,129.64 tons [1] Important Information - Milan has been confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in this week's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook is allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision [1] - US House Republicans proposed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but ignored the Democrats' healthcare requirements. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [1] Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]