新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-17）-20250917

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait - and - see [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors. It provides investment ratings and suggestions for each product, considering factors such as industry policies, seasonal effects, and macro - economic indicators. For example, in the black industry, factors like steel mill production, mine policies, and demand changes affect the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and rebar; in the financial sector, policies and market sentiment impact the performance of stock indices and bonds; and in the agricultural and soft commodity sectors, factors such as weather, production, and consumption patterns play important roles [2][4][6][8][10]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: After steel mills resumed production, hot metal output rebounded to 2.4 million tons. Global iron ore shipments increased, with Australian and Brazilian shipments up 6.482 million tons. Demand recovered, and steel mills' profit ratio declined from a high. There is limited fundamental contradiction in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can hold at the previous high [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Mine shutdown news and "anti - involution" expectations drove the double - coke futures to rebound. Supply may be weaker than last year, and demand increased as hot metal output recovered. Coke started the second round of price cuts, with a cumulative reduction of 100 - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Rebar: There is a lack of macro - level drivers, and "anti - involution" policy expectations are rising. Supply remains high, inventory pressure increases, and total demand is hard to show an inverse - seasonal performance. The profit of five major steel products declined, and the 2601 contract may oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - Glass: The rise of glass futures was driven by stronger upstream fuel prices and improved macro - sentiment. The "coal - to - gas" conversion in Shahe may cause price fluctuations. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not improved substantially, inventory reduction provides some confidence [2]. - Soda ash: Currently, trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Sector - Stock indices: The performance of different stock indices varied. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows. Policies such as the "Measures on Expanding Service Consumption" and the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" may impact the market. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. Market interest rates fluctuated, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, Chinese physical gold demand, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect gold prices. Silver also shows high - level oscillation. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and short - term factors include the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical conflicts [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Logs: Port daily shipments increased slightly, and September arrivals are expected to be low. Supply pressure is not large, and the spot price is stable. It is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were strong, and the cost support from foreign prices increased. However, the paper industry's low profitability and high inventory pressure limit the demand for high - priced pulp, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Spot prices partially declined. Production is stable, but it is in the seasonal off - season. There is an oversupply situation, and it should be treated bearishly [6]. - Oils and fats: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and inventory rose. Domestic soybean oil has inventory pressure, but supply may tighten later. Oils and fats may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Meal products: The US soybean yield decreased slightly, but production increased due to larger areas. Export demand is weak, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Meal products are expected to oscillate weakly [6][8]. - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering rate rose. Although demand is still restricted by high temperatures, it is expected to improve with school openings. The price may oscillate strongly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in Yunnan, and production increased in Hainan. Tire factory capacity utilization rose, and inventory decreased. Rubber prices may oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX and PTA prices follow oil prices, with PX's near - month supply - demand weakening. MEG has low - level inventory and wide - balanced supply - demand in the medium term. PR and PF are affected by cost and demand factors, and their prices may oscillate or be in a wait - and - see state [10].