现货成交情绪减弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: After the export window, carry out reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transactions improved. After the manufacturers raised the quotes, the transactions were average. Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,686 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,660 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 36 yuan/ton (+7), in Henan it was - 26 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu it was - 36 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 16, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 16, 2025, the urea production profit was 120 yuan/ton (+10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of September 16, 2025, the export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+0). September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 16, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.82% (+4.74%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 55.38% (- 3.60%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.88 days (+0.47). Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 16, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1327 million tons (+37,700 tons), and the port sample inventory was 549,400 tons (- 71,500 tons). The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [1][2]