氧化铝盘面反弹拉动现货市场成交活跃度

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may lead to price corrections in the electrolytic aluminum market, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking rhythm [6]. - The alumina market has a persistent oversupply situation. Although the previous low - price valuation led to a short - term rebound, there is still no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - Aluminum Spot: On September 16, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; Central China A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 180 yuan/ton; and Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum Futures: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,995 yuan/ton, closing at 20,975 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 16, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 637,000 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 75,734 tons, an increase of 649 tons; and the LME aluminum inventory was 483,775 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - Alumina Spot Price: On September 16, 2025, the alumina price in Shanxi was 3,005 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,970 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,040 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,190 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 335 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina Futures: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,945 yuan/ton, closing at 2,979 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 1.81% from the previous trading day [2]. - Aluminum Alloy Price: On September 16, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Aluminum Alloy Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. - Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may cause price corrections, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and de - stocking rhythm [6]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the short - term rebound is due to low - price valuation and short - covering. There is no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - Aluminum Alloy: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9].