上游检修逐步回归，丙烯现货高位偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to single - side investment, and suggests paying attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse arbitrage after the restart of the main PDH for inter - period investment. There is no suggestion for cross - variety investment [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the propylene spot price to decline. There are still some units with reduced load or under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has declined month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may limit the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene main contract closing price is 6445 yuan/ton (+3), the propylene East China spot price is 6450 yuan/ton (-125), the propylene North China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (-150), the propylene East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (-128), and the propylene North China basis is 105 yuan/ton (-153) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 197 US dollars/ton (-10), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (-2), and the import profit is - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - No specific profit data are mentioned in the text other than the import profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (+75); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 67 yuan/ton (+46); octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 69 yuan/ton (+4); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 535 yuan/ton (+50); acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+34); phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]