农产品日报：郑棉震荡偏强，糖价窄幅波动-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential downward pressure in the medium - term and upward potential in the long - term [2][3] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production situation and domestic sales performance affect the price, with short - term downward pressure but limited further decline space [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains, and demand is weak, with short - term prices expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,895 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of September 14, the boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the harvest rate was 9%, 1 point slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 13 points higher than last year and 10 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume, and adjusted down initial and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand data changed little, with only a slight increase in production. The new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and commercial inventory is at a historical low. The supply is still tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally in the peak season. However, new - year production is expected to increase, and hedging pressure may be high during the new cotton listing [2] Strategy - If the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season fails, Zhengzhou cotton may fall. In the long - term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price center may rise after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,547 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market information: Brazilian mid - southern sugarcane yield in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the sugar extraction rate decreased by 2.9%. German beet sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to drop by 4.9% [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's mid - southern region increased in August, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. However, the ethanol price provides support, and the downward space is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales in August were poor, and the market worried about syrup policy relaxation. The domestic price is under downward pressure, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline [5][6] Strategy - Adopt an approach of waiting for a rebound after bottom - grinding in the short - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,068 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market information: The import wood pulp spot market had more price increases than decreases, with some prices adjusted by 10 - 150 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced production cuts, but it hasn't significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year, and wood pulp imports are expected to decline. Port inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. Domestic demand is weak, with paper mills' raw material procurement cautious and low operating rates [7] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short - term [8]