国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250917

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities: - Short - term Rebound, Medium - term Weakness: p - Xylene, PTA [2][8][9] - 1 - 5 Month Spread Reverse Arbitrage: MEG [2][8][9] - Wide - range Oscillation: Rubber, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Offset Printing Paper [2][11][80][83] - Short - term Oscillation: Synthetic Rubber [2][16] - Oscillate with Oil, Narrow - range Operation: Asphalt [2][19] - Short - term Strong, Medium - term Oscillation: LLDPE [2][33] - Caution for Short - selling at Low Levels, Medium - term Oscillation: PP [2][37] - Interval Oscillation: Methanol [2][56] - Enter Oscillation Pattern: Urea [2][61] - Short - term Strong, Medium - term Weak: Styrene [2][65] - Little Change in Spot Market: Soda Ash [2][67] - Short - term Narrow - range Strong Oscillation: LPG [2][72] - Short - term High - level Weak Operation: Propylene [2][73] - 10 Under Pressure, 12 and 02 Wide - range Oscillation: Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][85] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical commodities, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, policy, and cost. It provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts and investment suggestions for each commodity, emphasizing the impact of terminal demand, supply changes, and policy implementation on commodity prices [8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity p - Xylene, PTA, MEG - p - Xylene: Short - term follows oil price rebound,中期单边趋势或仍偏弱. Domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%). 11 - 01 long - short spread is held, 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PXN compression position stops profit below 220 US dollars [8]. - PTA: Short - term follows oil price rebound,中期单边趋势 or still weak. 11 - 01 long - short spread is held, 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA processing fee on 01/05 contract rebounds short [9]. - MEG: Market focuses on anti - involution policy, coal price rebounds, short - term valuation recovers. 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure emerges, polyester demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [9][10]. Rubber - The rubber market shows wide - range oscillation. The trading volume and open interest increase, and the spot - futures basis and month - spread change. The inventory in Qingdao area decreases, and the production and sales of passenger cars and new energy vehicles increase, which has a certain impact on the demand for tires [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market shows short - term oscillation. The fundamentals face pressure from high supply, but there is support from macro - expectations such as the Fed's potential preventive interest rate cut and domestic anti - involution policies [16][17][18]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillates with oil in a narrow range. The weekly production decreases, and both factory and social inventories decline. The operating rate of refineries increases slightly [19][32]. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is short - term strong and medium - term oscillatory. The market price rises slightly, driven by macro - sentiment and the improvement of demand in the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short - term due to the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical [33][34]. PP - The PP market requires caution for short - selling at low levels and is medium - term oscillatory. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are positive factors such as holidays and potential Fed interest rate cuts [37][38]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market shows wide - range oscillation. The current upward driving force is insufficient, mainly due to the pressure on exports and the alumina market. However, it is affected by anti - involution and anti - deflation sentiment [41][42][43]. Pulp - The pulp market oscillates. The futures price rebounds, but the spot price has limited increase. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level [47][49][50]. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The futures price rises, and the spot price in some areas increases slightly. The production and sales in the main production areas are acceptable, but the sales in some regions are still average [52][53]. Methanol - The methanol market shows interval oscillation. The spot price index rises, with regional differences. The upper limit of the price is restricted by high imports and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by the expectation of improved fundamentals and domestic anti - involution policies [56][59]. Urea - The urea market enters an oscillation pattern. The short - term price is affected by spot trading volume. The medium - term trend is under pressure, but there are uncertainties such as holidays and Fed policies [61][62][63]. Styrene - The styrene market is short - term strong and medium - term weak. The cost center moves down due to OPEC's potential production increase, and the short - term downward space for pure benzene and styrene expands [65][66]. Soda Ash - The soda ash market has little change in the spot market. The futures price rises, and the domestic market is stable with some low - price increases. The downstream demand is stable, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [67][69]. LPG, Propylene - LPG: Short - term narrow - range strong oscillation. The price and trading volume change, and there are differences in the price spreads of different regions [72][73]. - Propylene: Short - term high - level weak operation. The fundamentals face pressure from high supply, and the开工 rates of related industries decline [73]. PVC - The PVC market shows wide - range oscillation. The short - term is affected by anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, but the medium - term faces pressure from high production, high inventory, and weak domestic demand [80]. Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Follows the rebound of crude oil and has a short - term adjustment trend. The futures price rises, and the spot price in some regions increases slightly [83]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Continues to rise, and the price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market increases slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The 10 - contract of the container shipping index (European line) operates under pressure, while the 12 and 02 contracts oscillate widely. The trading volume and open interest change, and there are differences in the freight rates of different carriers [85].