Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips for copper; recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum; recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or sell on rallies for nickel; adopt range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][14][15][17][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract for soda ash; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range [1][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][33][34][35][35] - Agricultural and Livestock: Recommended to sell on rallies for live pigs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils and fats are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][37][38][39][42][44][50] Core Views - The market is currently in a state of structural adjustment, with different sectors showing varying trends. Some sectors are supported by positive factors such as improved macro liquidity and strong demand expectations, while others face challenges such as oversupply and weak demand [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - The Fed's interest rate decision and macro policies will have a significant impact on the market. The market has strong expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, which will create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing and support the prices of some assets [5][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - Investors should pay attention to the supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy changes of different sectors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The market may continue to experience a structural adjustment in the near term, with a search for a clear leading sector. The bull market logic driven by liquidity remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury Bonds: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. Although the central bank's bond purchase operations may have an impact on the market, the market reaction is expected to be more of a phased and impulse-like nature [5][6] Black Building Materials - Double Coking Coal: The price increase of pithead coal has slowed down, and the market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait for a clear driving factor [7] - Rebar: The price of rebar futures has continued to strengthen, but the supply and demand fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: The supply of glass has remained stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips for the January contract, with a focus on the arbitrage opportunity between soda ash and glass [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper has shown a strong upward trend in the near term, supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in domestic demand. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips, with a focus on the 82500 resistance level for the Shanghai copper main contract [10][11] - Aluminum: The supply of aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand has entered the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [12] - Nickel: The supply of nickel is expected to increase, but the price is supported by the bottom. It is recommended to sell on rallies moderately in the short term, with a focus on the impact of the macro environment on the price [15][16] - Tin: The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 26 - 27.8 million yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 contract [17] - Silver and Gold: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 9700 - 10500 range for the Shanghai silver 10 contract and the 815 - 855 range for the Shanghai gold 10 contract [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4850 - 5050 range for the January contract [19][20] - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2550 - 2650 range for the January contract [21][22] - Styrene: The supply of styrene is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7000 - 7300 range [23][24] - Rubber: The supply of rubber is stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - Urea: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 1630 - 1650 support level for the January contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][28] - Methanol: The supply of methanol has remained stable, and the demand has decreased. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2330 - 2450 range for the January contract [28] - Polyolefins: The supply of polyolefins has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7200 - 7500 range for the L2601 contract and the 6900 - 7200 range for the PP2601 contract [30] - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global supply and demand of cotton have improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - PTA: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the price of oil has weakened. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [34][35] - Apples: The price of apples has shown a strong upward trend, supported by the high price of early-maturing apples and the positive procurement sentiment of merchants. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the market [35] - Jujubes: The consumption of jujubes is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading with a bearish bias [36] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: The supply of live pigs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a focus on the 13700 - 14000 resistance level for the November contract and the 14000 - 14300 resistance level for the January contract. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the May contract and shorting the March contract [37][38] - Eggs: The supply of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near-term contracts (October and November) or hold put options for the November contract. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the December and January contracts, with a focus on the range trading [38] - Corn: The supply of corn is sufficient, and the price is under pressure during the listing period. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the November contract, with a focus on the 2220 - 2250 resistance level. Also, pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [39][40][41] - Soybean Meal: The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the near term, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 support level for the M2601 contract, with a focus on the impact of the US - China trade relationship and the procurement of ships after October on the price [42][43][44] - Oils and Fats: The prices of oils and fats are expected to be strong in the near term, supported by factors such as the reduction in palm oil production in Malaysia and the improvement in demand. It is recommended to buy on dips or purchase call options, with a focus on the 8550, 9700, and 10300 resistance levels for the January contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [44][45][46][47][48][50]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250917
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-17 02:44