华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250917

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production; Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year [3] For Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the dollar is under selling pressure. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday [2] - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the aluminum water ratio is expected to rise slightly [3] - The spot price of alumina runs narrowly, the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changes little, and the weekly cost decreases. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week [3] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.2 tons compared with last Thursday and 0.6 tons compared with last Monday. Whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [3]