铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of a 25bp rate cut. Most commodities are in a state of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, and their short - term trends are affected by this expectation [4][6][16]. - Domestic policies are being introduced to boost service consumption, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while the bond market remains on the sidelines [3]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which, combined with macro - factors, determine their price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than expected, indicating strong consumption. The market is waiting for the FOMC result, with the US dollar index falling, and the gold price hitting a new high [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments have introduced new policies for service consumption. The A - share market is oscillating, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The bond market is sensitive to negatives, and the 10Y and 30Y interest rates have been restored to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but some funds are cautious as the rate - cut approaches [4]. Copper - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is cautious. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month may have been digested. The market is highly concerned about the future path of the "dot plot". Part of the overseas long - position funds have taken profits in advance. The dollar index is continuously weakening, and the copper price still has upward potential in the medium term [6]. Aluminum - The aluminum price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted the aluminum price. However, high prices have restricted downstream procurement to some extent. The consumption peak season needs to be verified, and the price needs fundamental support to rise further [7][8]. Zinc - The expectation of a large - scale rate cut has weakened. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, supporting the price of London zinc and thus the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic downstream procurement is still cautious, and the zinc price oscillates narrowly in the short term [9]. Lead - The expectation of refinery复产 has increased, and the supply - side support for the lead price has weakened. However, the expected stocking demand of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day holiday and the expected outflow of some goods after delivery will support the price. The lead price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [10]. Tin - The LME 0 - 3 BACK has slightly widened, and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and domestic refinery maintenance support the price. However, the increase in inventory at home and abroad and insufficient downstream consumption make it difficult for the price to rise. The tin price will continue to oscillate horizontally in the short term [11]. Industrial Silicon - The demand expectation has improved, and the industrial silicon price is running strongly. The supply is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of improvement. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price may still rise. The downstream stocking expectation is strong, but the acceptance of prices is weak. The risk of resource disruption has not been eliminated, and the high - level emphasis on anti - involution provides support for the price [14]. Nickel - As the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut. If there is no more - than - expected rate cut, the nickel price may experience a phased correction. The nickel ore market is generally loose, and the domestic nickel - iron cost pressure remains [15][16]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions and inventory reduction have led to an oscillating and strengthening oil price. Although the market has a strong expectation of oversupply in the fourth quarter, the significant reduction in API crude oil inventory has boosted the bulls' sentiment. Geopolitical premiums are continuously factored in [17][18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. The soda ash price increase may be related to demand and macro - expectations. The glass factory's shipment is smooth, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate meeting to drive domestic liquidity release. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between glass and soda ash [19][20]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating. After the continuous rise, the market sentiment has been released, and the fundamental demand is poor. The supply has increased, and the peak - season expectation is difficult to be fulfilled. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the market [21]. Iron Ore - The port inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The external ore shipment has increased significantly, and the demand side is supported by the high - level resumption of blast - furnace operation. There is still an expectation of restocking in mid - to - late September [22]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The market trading is light, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating within a range. The short - term supply is under pressure, and the long - term import is uncertain. The future trend depends on the US bio - fuel redistribution plan and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil is oscillating and adjusting. The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to be firm. The supply is expected to be less than the demand in 2025 and 2026. The strong performance of rapeseed oil and the impact of weather on palm oil production and export support the price [25].