煤焦：环保限产政策扰动盘面震荡运行

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].