燃料油日报：埃及燃料油进口需求延续-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak leads to a seasonal decline in demand. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short - term oil price direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage. The near - end supply is relatively abundant, and the Singapore inventory is at a high level, but the pressure has eased. Egyptian procurement demand continues, with an expected import of 690,000 tons in September, a 260,000 - ton increase from August and basically the same as last year. The power generation consumption peak is ending, providing short - term support but expected to decline in October [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after its RFCC unit shutdown. However, the West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low, with no serious oversupply expected. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with support at the lower valuation but large upward resistance [2]. - The short - term strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is neutral, and the medium - term strategy is downward. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - Fuel Oil Futures Prices: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 2,795 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.25% at 3,395 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude Oil Situation: Crude oil prices are in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak causes a seasonal demand decline. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen. Geopolitical uncertainties and low inventories make the short - term oil price direction unclear [1]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is in the market re - balancing stage. Near - end supply is abundant, and Singapore inventory is high but the pressure has eased. Middle - East shipments decreased significantly in September, and Egyptian procurement continues. The power generation consumption peak is ending [1]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Supply pressure has increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery. West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low. There is no serious oversupply expected, and it has a mild Back structure. In the medium - term, it faces demand substitution and excess capacity issues [2]. Strategy - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - Other Strategies: No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3].