马士基10月第一周开价继续下修，运价中枢继续下移

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route continued to decline in the first week of October, and the freight rate center continued to move down [1]. - For the October contract, it is relatively safe to be short - allocated as the driver is downward, but the key lies in the downward space, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be gradually carried out to trade the expected price increase by shipping companies for November and December [5]. - For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the recent Trump tariff risk, which, if implemented, will have a great impact on the demand of the European line and be negative for the prices of the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the prices of various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route have different degrees of decline. For example, Maersk's prices in weeks 38 - 40 decreased, and the prices of other companies such as HPL, MSC, and ONE also changed [1]. - Geopolitically, Israel's large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip may affect the shipping market, with nearly 400,000 people having left Gaza City [2]. - The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports in October is 278,000 TEU, with 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [3]. Contract Analysis - October Contract: It is mainly short - allocated in the off - peak season, and the valuation continues to be revised down. The delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The current market price center in the second half of September has dropped to around $1500/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL may put pressure on the spot price in October [4]. - December Contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be carried out to trade the expected price increase. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the possible transfer of US - line ships to the European line [5]. - Far - month Contracts: Trump's call for NATO to impose a 50% - 100% tariff on China may have a great impact on the European line demand and be negative for the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Other Information - As of September 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,629.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,388.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU [7]. - Strategies include a weak - oscillating main contract for the unilateral strategy and shorting the October contract for the arbitrage strategy [8].