铜：美联储决议前，价格谨慎

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Before the Fed's resolution, copper prices remain cautious [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 80,870, down 0.09%, and the overnight closing price was 80,900, up 0.04%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 10,117, down 0.71%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 70,647, an increase of 1,776 from the previous day, and the position was 175,014, a decrease of 4,242. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 16,815, a decrease of 218, and the position was 292,000, a decrease of 2,646 [1] - Inventory Data: The Shanghai copper futures inventory was 33,692, an increase of 3,049. The LME copper inventory was 150,950, a decrease of 1,675, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 10.47%, a decrease of 0.79% [1] - Spread Data: The LME copper premium and discount, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the LME copper premium was - 59.26, an increase of 2.67 from the previous day, and the Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 74,200, a decrease of 100 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The US Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut from now to the end of the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months [1][3] - Industry News: Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources, which will be the largest mining merger in more than a decade. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons, and the production in the first seven months of 2025 was about 1.56 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is still shut down. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]