国债期货日报：美联储议息前夕，国债期货大多收涨-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, and the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows has increased. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2]. - Repo rates have rebounded, and Treasury futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 and a decline rate of 0.67%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1126, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.010 and a decline rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; DR007 is 1.50, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.98%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08% [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each Treasury bond futures variety, etc. [10][13][15] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local bond issuance situation [25][31] IV. Spread Overview There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [29][33][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][40][46] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][68]