油料日报：豆一新陈交替临近上市，花生供应预增但质量受影响-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybeans market is in the transition phase between old and new crops. With the approaching autumn harvest in the Northeast, new soybeans are about to be listed. Although there are some adverse conditions in some areas, the overall national soybean planting area has increased, and there is a strong expectation of a good harvest in the regions outside the pass [1][2] - The peanut futures market shows range - bound fluctuations. The supply of peanuts is expected to increase as wheat - stubble peanuts are about to be mass - listed. However, future rainfall in Henan may affect peanut quality, and low prices may lead to farmers' reluctance to sell [3][4][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3924.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 15.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.38%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 296, a change of + 15 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] Market Information - In the Northeast soybean market, a small amount of high - oil soybeans have been listed, and most enterprises are waiting for the listing of commodity soybeans at the end of the month to start purchasing. The current price of early - maturing new soybeans is not representative, and attention should be paid to the progress of new grain listing. The overall growth of soybeans is good, but there are some areas with general growth, and there is still an expectation of a good harvest for new grains [1] - The prices of standard - grade first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared with the previous day [1] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7796.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of + 68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of + 0.88%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8290.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.72%. The spot basis was PK10 + 404.00, a change of - 68.00 from the previous day, a decrease of - 14.41% [3] Market Information - New peanuts in the Northeast have been sporadically listed. Although the average price of common peanuts in the national market has increased, the prices in some producing areas have shown a stable - to - weak pattern, with a north - south difference in prices. The contract procurement prices of oil mills vary by region, and the overall demand for oil extraction is poor [3] - Future rainfall in Henan may lead to an increase in the possibility of peanut mildew, a decrease in yield, and low prices may intensify farmers' reluctance to sell [5]