研究所晨会观点精萃-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term shock is on the weak side, and cautious observation is recommended [3] - Black Metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious observation [3] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [3] - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level shock is on the strong side, and cautious long positions are recommended [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US may impose more tariffs on imported auto parts, and the dollar is weak due to expected Fed rate cuts. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, but risk appetite has increased due to reduced external uncertainties and enhanced easing expectations. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations [3]. - Different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, steel may continue to rebound, while some energy - chemical products are in a state of shock [6][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US may increase tariffs on auto parts, the dollar index is at a 10 - week low due to expected Fed rate cuts, and global risk appetite has increased [3]. - Domestic: In August, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, but risk appetite increased due to policy measures and reduced external uncertainties. The market focuses on domestic policies, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Short - term long positions for equity indices, cautious observation for treasury bonds. For commodities, short - term long positions for non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and cautious observation for others [3]. Black Metals - Steel: Futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Demand is still weak, but supply is likely to shrink. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend [6]. - Iron Ore: Prices are strong, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to view prices with an interval shock idea [6][7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - Soda Ash: High - level shock. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long term, while being vigilant about short - term policy impacts [8]. - Glass: High - level shock. Supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: Prices are strongly rising, driven by expected Fed rate cuts. It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - Aluminum: Prices are rising, but the fundamentals are weak. There is a technical pressure level at 21,300 yuan/ton [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: Supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - Tin: Supply has decreased due to maintenance, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: Prices are rising, with both supply and demand increasing. The market is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - Industrial Silicon: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - Polysilicon: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock and easy - to - rise - hard - to - fall state [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices are slightly rising due to supply pressure and expected Fed rate cuts [13]. - Asphalt: Prices are following the rise of crude oil, but demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [14]. - PX: Prices are rebounding slightly, in a tight pattern, and are expected to be in a shock state [14]. - PTA: Prices are rebounding slightly, but the upward space is limited. There is also support below, and it is expected to be in a shock state [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is expected to be in a weak - shock state due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [15]. - Short - Fiber: Prices are slightly rising, but the upward space is limited, and it can be short - sold in the medium term [15]. - Methanol: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. It is in a short - term shock - weak state with limited downward space [16]. - PP: Supply is still loose, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state in the short term [16]. - LLDPE: Supply is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state [16]. - Urea: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be low in the medium - to - long term [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Prices are rising. The crop rating is declining, and the harvest rate is slightly lower than last year [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply is excessive, but the price center may rise in late September and October [18]. - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the market is bullish. Palm oil demand is weakening, and production concerns exist [19]. - Corn: New - season prices are chaotic at the beginning, but the expected decline is limited. Futures are in a short - term correction, but the low - valuation support is strong [19][20]. - Pigs: The supply in September is increasing, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be an over - seasonal pressure on prices from October to November [20].