中辉能化观点-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish rebound [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate policy decision. Supply - demand imbalances and OPEC+ production increases are key factors affecting the energy market. Different chemical products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][8][13] - For most products, the market is influenced by a combination of macro factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Some products are in a state of supply - demand tight balance, while others face supply or demand - side pressures [3][33][37] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: International oil prices rose overnight. WTI increased by 0.82%, Brent by 1.53%, and SC by 1.02%. The Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.65 per barrel [6][7] - Basic Logic: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and attacks on Russian oil facilities support short - term oil prices. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season leads to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on oil prices in the medium - to long - term [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [495 - 505] [10] LPG - Market Performance: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [11][12] - Basic Logic: Although the cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the upstream crude oil is in an oversupply situation. Chemical profit decline weakens demand, and inventory increases slightly [13] - Strategy: Add short positions. Focus on the range of PG at [4400 - 4500] [14] L - Market Performance: The L01 closing price was 7,209 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [17] - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The agricultural film peak season is approaching, and demand support strengthens [19] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of L at [7200 - 7350] [19] PP - Market Performance: The PP01 closing price was 6,939 yuan per ton, down 0.1% [22] - Basic Logic: Cost support improves. The PP parking ratio rises above 20%, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand enters the peak season, and raw material demand gradually increases [24] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of PP at [6900 - 7050] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V01 closing price was 4,847 yuan per ton, down 0.9% [27] - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves, and the price rebounds from a low level. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 12 weeks. However, more device maintenance plans are expected to reduce production [29] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks supported by low valuation. Pay attention to the range of V at [4900 - 5050] [29] PX - Market Performance: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan [32] - Basic Logic: Supply - side device changes are limited. PTA device maintenance is short - term, and demand improves. PXN is at a relatively high level this year. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical conflicts affect the market [33] - Strategy: Go long on short - term dips and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of PX511 at [6725 - 6820] [34] PTA - Market Performance: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan [36] - Basic Logic: PTA processing fees are low. New device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices increase supply pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is expected to boost demand. Supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - Strategy: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and go long on short - term dips [3] MEG - Market Performance: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan [40] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices slightly reduce their load, and overseas devices change little. Import is low. There is a consumption season expectation, and demand improves. Inventory is low, but new device production expectations cause the market to fluctuate weakly [41] - Strategy: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG01 at [4255 - 4300] [42] Methanol - Market Performance: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2,379 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [44] - Basic Logic: Methanol device maintenance increases, and supply pressure is high. Demand shows signs of stopping decline. Social inventory accumulates, and cost support stabilizes [45][46] - Strategy: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 at [2365 - 2400] [47] Urea - Market Performance: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory accumulates in factories and decreases in ports. Valuation is not high [4] - Strategy: The urea futures price is under pressure. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to long - term [4] Natural Gas - Market Performance: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Geopolitical conflicts drive up energy prices, and the approaching winter increases demand for natural gas [5] - Strategy: Cautiously bullish [5] Asphalt - Market Performance: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors boost the cost - end oil price, but asphalt supply is in excess, and the overall supply - demand is loose [5] - Strategy: Hold short positions [5] Glass - Market Performance: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases. New production lines increase supply, and terminal demand is weak [5] - Strategy: Short - term bullish [5] Soda Ash - Market Performance: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - Basic Logic: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases for three consecutive times. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and supply pressure is expected to ease [5] - Strategy: Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish on rebounds [5]