贵金属日报：降息在即，贵金属维持高位震荡-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With the upcoming interest rate meeting, the market is shifting towards trading the possibility of unexpectedly loose monetary policy this year. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the retracement of gains after the interest rate cut catalyst materializes [8][9] Market Analysis - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and President Trump signed the appointment document. The market may question the independence of the Federal Reserve. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed Governor Cook could continue to serve, and the Trump administration will appeal the court's decision. The US Department of Commerce announced that it has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope and will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [1] Futures Market Gold - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.48 yuan/gram and closed at 842.08 yuan/gram, a change of 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 844.18 yuan/gram and closed at 842.10 yuan/gram, a 0.29% decline from the afternoon close [2] Silver - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,020.00 yuan/kg and closed at 10,108.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 387,860 lots, and the open interest was 195,504 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10,149 yuan/kg and closed at 10,070 yuan/kg, a 0.63% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 16, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.030%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.529%, down 0.44 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes Gold - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 106 lots, and the short positions also changed by 106 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 313,989 lots, a change of 24.13% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 978,146 lots, a change of 18.81% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, an increase of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,152.9 tons, an increase of 83.30 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking Spot-Futures Spread - On September 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -20.12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,025.41 yuan/kg [6] Gold-Silver Ratio - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 83.31, a change of 0.35% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.21, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 43,660 kg, a change of 29.26% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,792 kg, a change of 33.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,562 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 4,110 kg [7]