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Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - China's domestic policy expectations are rising, with potential incremental policies and fiscal stimulus to address external pressures. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent interest rate cut path and the performance of the US real estate market. In the commodity market, there are opportunities for multi - allocation of industrial products and precious metals [1]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. There are also "anti - involution" opportunities in some chemical products. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation as the Fed is about to restart the interest rate cut cycle [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China: In August, external pressure increased marginally, with weakened exports to the US but resilience in non - US exports. To address this, the government has frequently mentioned stable - growth policies. New social financing and loans increased in August, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. The economic data in August showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and more policies are expected. The stock market had a good performance on September 16, with more than 3,500 stocks rising, and the robot concept stocks booming. Domestic commodity futures mostly rose [1]. - US: The August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The new non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were both worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. Retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected. The Fed is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, and attention is on the subsequent interest rate cut path. The US CBO significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for this year, and the Trump administration announced a reduction in Japanese automobile import tariffs [1]. Commodity Analysis - Black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term as OPEC + plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some products is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation as the Fed is about to restart the interest rate cut cycle [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [3]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including opening up the service industry at a high level and expanding open - pilot areas in relevant fields [1][5]. - Sino - US economic and trade talks in Madrid reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok problem, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [1][5]. - The stock market on September 16 had a good performance, with more than 3,500 stocks rising, and the robot concept stocks booming. Gold prices reached a record high. US retail sales in August were unexpectedly strong, and the Fed's interest rate decision - making list was finalized. The Trump administration announced a reduction in Japanese automobile import tariffs [1][5].