新能源及有色金属日报：现货市场成交清淡，铅价维持高位震荡-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for downstream lead-acid batteries is showing signs of a slight recovery, while the supply of raw materials remains relatively tight. In September, several smelters are scheduled for maintenance, and it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. With the resonance of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, lead prices may gradually rise, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On September 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.54 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,978 lots, a decrease of 3,688 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 45,095 lots, a decrease of 1,961 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,155 yuan/ton and a low of 17,005 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On September 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, a decrease of 3,950 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]