集运日报：现货价格持续下行，中东局势反复，国庆前货量堪忧，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - The main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1200 and increase positions on the 2512 contract around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try for the arbitrage strategy. For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2] - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, with three - month consecutive improvement and the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - In the US in August, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2] Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%. The trading volume was 32,600 lots, and the open interest was 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military was strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel and would continue the operation until the mission was completed [5] - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5]