铁矿石晨报：受碳元素带动，价格高位震荡-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The supply of iron ore is steadily increasing, while the demand is falling from its peak under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is shifting from slightly tight to balanced, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will support the price in the short term [3]. - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the focus of market trading is expected to shift to real - world factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions have all significantly increased. The arrival volume is slightly higher than that of the same period last year. As the high - volume shipments arrive at ports, supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [3]. Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has returned to previous levels. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The blast furnace profit has declined from its high and is approaching the break - even level, while the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale loss. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and the inventory level is low, so the short - term restocking demand may support the iron ore price [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased with the resumption of production in multiple regions, and the inventory level has slightly increased but is lower than that of last year. In the middle and late ten - day period, as the pre - holiday restocking phase begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Attention should be paid to whether the restocking intensity during the National Day holiday exceeds expectations. The port inventory has continued to increase slightly this period. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the port clearance volume has significantly increased, and the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3]. Price - The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference range is 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - bound trading and using covered call options [4].