铅锌日评：沪铅震荡整理，沪锌或偏强整理-20250917

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For lead, the supply is tightening temporarily, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals eases. The lead price breaks through 17,000 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. However, the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price [1]. - For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc remains weak, but the extremely low overseas LME zinc inventory and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the zinc price strongly. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, SHFE zinc is expected to be stronger in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the lead futures main contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan/ton. The lead basis was - 105 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 6.29% to 54,978 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.17% to 45,095 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 2.21% to 1.22 [1]. - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 227,850 tons, and SHFE lead warrant inventory remained unchanged at 59,417 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.25% to 2,006.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME lead price ratio decreased by 0.86% to 8.50 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, the refinery operation rate is less than 30% due to raw material and loss factors, and the supply tightens temporarily [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not obvious. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, the downstream's purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Investment Strategy - Keep an eye on profit protection for previous long positions [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots remained unchanged, and the closing price of the zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan/ton. The zinc basis was - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract decreased by 1.22% to 96,641 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7.62% to 84,991 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 6.93% to 1.14 [1]. - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 48,975 tons, and SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1.56% to 52,170 tons. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.08% to 2,984.50 dollars/ton, and the SHFE - LME zinc price ratio decreased by 0.33% to 7.46 [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased significantly after the impacts of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipated. With the continuous decline of the SHFE - LME ratio, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. Investment Strategy - Try to go long with a light position at low prices [1]. Industry News - The geological environmental protection and land reclamation plans of 25 mines, including the Situpu Tungsten Mine in Anhua County, have passed the review [1]. - On September 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 47.54 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 9,406 lots to 165,902 lots. The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 26.76 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 13,993 lots to 218,799 lots [1].