工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again recently due to potential supply-side disturbances. It is expected that the silicon price may remain at a high level in the short term, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. The polysilicon price is also in a high-level consolidation, and the spot price increase faces pressure [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. The polysilicon industry has a certain demand increment, but the organic silicon and silicon-aluminum alloy industries have different situations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - On September 17, 2025, the average price of non-oxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China increased by 1.11% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 increased by 1.05% to 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 1.31% [1]. - The prices of N-type polysilicon materials such as N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon all increased, with increases ranging from 1.84% to 2.06%. The futures main contract closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [1]. Market Supply and Demand - Industrial Silicon Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously overhauled silicon factories in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, and the power cost is at a low level throughout the year, so the enterprise start-up rate has steadily recovered, and the supply has increased steadily [1]. - Industrial Silicon Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. The organic silicon market has supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, with low inventory willingness [1]. - Polysilicon Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, with an estimated output of nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Polysilicon Demand: The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial Silicon: Adopt interval operation, buy out-of-the-money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. - Polysilicon: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - Hebei Kuntian New Energy Co., Ltd.'s silicon-carbon anode material production line (Phase I, 1,000 tons) has been officially put into operation and started small-scale supply to domestic and foreign leading customers. The company has planned a Phase II expansion plan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons after the completion of both phases [1]. - On September 12, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the 'Three-North' Shelter Forest Program", proposing to actively promote photovoltaic sand control in the northern wind-sand area and the northwest desert area [1].