新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅能耗指标趋严，长期有利于控制产能-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [9] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - Polysilicon: The new energy consumption index has a long - term positive impact but limited short - term influence. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: On September 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of 0.85% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 287184 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49872 lots, a decrease of 33 lots from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The prices in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang rose. The 97 - silicon price was slightly adjusted upward. The willingness of northern silicon enterprises to sell was positive, and their quotes were more advantageous than those of spot - futures traders. The increase in spot trading was less than that of the futures market [1]. - Consumption Side: The price of organic silicon DMC was stable. After two weeks of low - level operation, downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories, supported by pre - sold orders, were more willing to increase prices to stimulate orders and repair profit margins [2]. Polysilicon - Futures Market: On September 16, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 opened high and closed low, with wide - range fluctuations. It opened at 55600 yuan/ton and closed at 53670 yuan/ton, a 0.51% change from the previous trading day. The position was 127779 lots, and the trading volume was 316394 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (with a 3.79% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a - 1.78% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31200.00 tons (a 3.31% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a 0.73% change) [6][7]. - Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component Markets: The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components were relatively stable [7]. - Policy Impact: The new energy consumption standard for polysilicon was more stringent. In the long run, it could control production capacity, but in the short term, the impact on supply might be limited as it was only a draft for comments [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price followed the futures price and increased slightly. The current fundamentals had little change. The futures market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there were policies for capacity withdrawal. If so, the futures price might rise [3]. Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals were average. The new energy consumption index had a long - term positive impact. The futures market was affected by policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. Participants should pay attention to risk management, follow the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to buy on dips [9].