五矿期货农产品早报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including protein meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current supply - demand situation, cost factors, and future expectations of each product [3][5][8][11][14][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - Market Condition: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly due to trade optimism and recent drought. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. The downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged week - on - week and at a high level in recent years year - on - year [3]. - Cost Analysis: The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, potential expansion of Brazilian planting area, and possible short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. - Trading Strategy: The cost of imported soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. The domestic soybean meal market has high - level提货. It is expected that the spot side may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. The soybean meal should be mainly operated in a range - bound manner, waiting for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Oils and Fats - Important Information: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and the output decreased by 3.17% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to reach 753 million tons. The price of edible oils including palm oil is expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand. On Tuesday, the three major domestic oils were strong, with stable demand from importing countries, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia providing continuous positive factors [6]. - Trading Strategy: Low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be in a medium - term upward trend. With the current high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization [8]. Sugar - Key Information: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The sugar yield and sugar content in Brazil's central - southern region in August decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - Trading Strategy: Both the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to continue to decline, and if Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the domestic sugar price may reach a new low [11]. Cotton - Key Information: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The开机率 of the downstream textile industry has increased but is still lower than the same period in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is at a low level, and the US cotton has a high excellent rate and a normal harvest rate [13]. - Trading Strategy: With the consumption peak season approaching, the downstream开机率 is increasing, but the inventory is low and there is an expected increase in production in the long - term. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.07 yuan to 3.74 yuan/jin. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is stable [16]. - Trading Strategy: The supply base is still large, and there is a large amount of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price may fall back. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure decreases. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a large increase in positions after a price decline [17]. Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price continued to fall. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.17 yuan to 13.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.13 yuan to 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand is average, and the slaughter volume is stable. The pig price is expected to continue to be weak [19]. - Trading Strategy: The planned slaughter volume is large in September, but there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserves. The spot price may fluctuate in a narrow range. The futures price has fallen continuously, and it is not cost - effective to short further. Pay attention to the possibility of a rebound due to policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [20].